The Gambler’s Fallacy Explained

The Gambler’s Fallacy Explained

The Gambler’s Fallacy – Opposite Sides Of The Same Coin

Whether you are of the belief that the gambler’s fallacy is no less misleading a notion than the infinite number of existing logical fallacies, or that the world of luck is somehow exempt from the 50/50 rule of chance, the fact remains: the gambler’s fallacy remains a thing of mystery – with fervent devotees passionately attempting to substantiate each chosen side of the particular argument.

It’s an interpretation that most of us are familiar with – one would hardly have had to spend more than one enjoyable evening around a Roulette wheel to have heard a conversation along the lines of, “red 21 just came up – it’s hardly likely that it will come up again during the very next spin!”

The question of luck, or chance, is one that has boggled many of the most ardent scientific and philosophical minds.  Despite the fact that sound logic dictates that luck is purely a random thing, most people – regardless of nationality or general background – still appear to hold the unshakeable belief that luck is more than just mere chance; it is an invisible and powerful force that either works for you or against you, at any given time.  This is most prominent when considering the various religions of the world.  The controversial nature of religion aside, even men and women of science differ widely on the matter of luck.  Some believe that everything is orchestrated and pre-determined; that the universe runs like a well-oiled machine, while others suppose that there is just no surmising about what may happen next or in the future at a NZ online casino.

The Gambler’s Fallacy Defined

The gambler’s fallacy has been defined as being the reasoning that, in a situation of pure chance, any particular outcome may be affected or influenced by previous outcomes in that same situation.  The gambler’s fallacy manifests itself not only in a situation where the previous round in any game was a “perfect hit” (and therefore, according to most, not likely to be repeated immediately after), but also in a situation dubbed by psychologists as a “near miss”.  An example of this would be when a slot machine comes progressively closer to a five-in-a-row winning result over the course of a number of spins.  The first spin may render a result of two-in-a-row, the second yielding the slightly better result of three-in-a-row, and the third really turning on the excitement with a score of four out of five similar symbols in one row.  The gambler’s fallacy dictates that the player will at this point become convinced that he or she is somehow “getting better at it”, having developed – quite illogically – a certain skill since the first spin.  The gambler will in all probability up the ante at this point by playing at maximum bet – as the next spin is bound to turn up a jackpot result of five-in-a-row.

The Gambler’s Fallacy: Spot-On Or Debunked?

A large number of betting systems have been devised – the success rate of these being a relatively reliable indication of the predictability of a future event based on past events.  Some swear by betting strategies believed to be tried and trusted, others remain sceptics.

Whether you base your playing decisions on luck or strategy, the secret seems to be to keep playing.  The fun is after all in knowing that the next one may very well be the big one!

Sic Bo And Craps – The Two Games Compared

Dice games rely very much on the factor of luck instead of skill. Dice games are games of chance.   Most of us have a primal relationship with dice games, to various extents, as a result of the games that filled the carefree days of childhood – snakes and ladders and liar’s dice being well-loved examples.

It is to be expected then that we would enjoy moving on to more mature versions of dice-driven games when we grow older.  Enter Sic Bo and Craps.


The game of craps has been around for a very long time.  It has some of the best odds as far as casino games go, and is enjoyed by many.  The game is played on a tailor-made table, especially designed for the particular game.

Two dice are used during the game, and the condition of these are usually inspected regularly, so as to ensure complete fairness.

craps dice games - table games - casino online

A typical Craps table can accommodate up to 20 players at any one time.  Each player will be afforded to throw (or “shoot”) the dice.  The game is played in rounds, and turns are afforded clockwise around the table.  Each round consists of two phases; the come out roll and the point roll.

Every new game of Craps starts off with the come out roll.  A come out roll result of 2, 3 or 12 will end the particular round, and all pass line bets will be lost by all players around the table.

A come out roll of 7 or 11 will result in all line bets being won by all players.

The shooter will continue to roll the dice, until such time as 4, 5, 6, 8, 9 or 10 are rolled.  At this time, the Point roll will come into play.  If the shooter rolls and matches the point number, the result is a win for all bets that were placed on the pass line.

The rules of the game may seem slightly complicated to beginners, but it’s not all that difficult to learn.

Craps is known to be a jovial and socially enjoyable game, and shouts of dismay or glee are often heard around a Craps table.

Sic Bo

Sic Bo, although fairly new to the western gambling scene, certainly trumps Craps as far as ease of play is concerned.  Sic Bo generally appeals to lovers of the game of Craps.  The game is played by throwing a total of three dice.

In Sic Bo, the dealer does the throwing.  Players are able to place wagers on a variety of outcomes, examples being the total score of the three dice, any one specific number making a star appearance, a combination of two numbers, etc.  The more exotic the bet, the higher the risk.

Different types of bets obviously offer various returns – the higher the risk, the better the return.

Sic Bo is highly enjoyable, and will appeal to any player looking to seek out the hidden pleasures of Lady Luck.

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